A team from the University of Cambridge found that widely-used ‘mixing ventilation’ systems, which are designed to keep conditions uniform in all parts of the room, disperse airborne contaminants evenly throughout the space. These contaminants may include droplets and aerosols, potentially containing viruses.

The research has highlighted the importance of good ventilation and mask-wearing in keeping the contaminant concentration to a minimum level and mitigating the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

The evidence increasingly indicates that the virus is spread primarily through larger droplets and smaller aerosols, which are expelled when we cough, sneeze, laugh, talk or breathe. In addition, the data available so far indicates that indoor transmission is far more common than outdoor transmission, which is likely due to increased exposure times and decreased dispersion rates for droplets and aerosols.

“As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere and people start spending more time inside, understanding the role of ventilation is critical to estimating the risk of contracting the virus and helping slow its spread,” said Professor Paul Linden from Cambridge’s Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP), who led the research. “While direct monitoring of droplets and aerosols in indoor spaces is difficult, we exhale carbon dioxide that can easily be measured and used as an indicator of the risk of infection. Small respiratory aerosols containing the virus are transported along with the carbon dioxide produced by breathing, and are carried around a room by ventilation flows. Insufficient ventilation can lead to high carbon dioxide concentration, which in turn could increase the risk of exposure to the virus.”

The team showed that airflow in rooms is complex and depends on the placement of vents, windows and doors, and on convective flows generated by heat emitted by people and equipment in a building. Other variables, such as people moving or talking, doors opening or closing, or changes in outdoor conditions for naturally ventilated buildings, affect these flows and consequently influence the risk of exposure to the virus.

Ventilation, whether driven by wind or heat generated within the building or by mechanical systems, works in one of two main modes. Mixing ventilation is the most common, where vents are placed to keep the air in a space well mixed so that temperature and contaminant concentrations are kept uniform throughout the space.

The second mode, displacement ventilation, has vents placed at the bottom and the top of a room, creating a cooler lower zone and a warmer upper zone, and warm air is extracted through the top part of the room. As exhaled breath is also warm, most of it accumulates in the upper zone. Provided the interface between the zones is high enough, contaminated air can be extracted by the ventilation system rather than breathed in by someone else. The study suggests that when designed properly, displacement ventilation could reduce the risk of mixing and cross-contamination of breath, thereby mitigating the risk of exposure.

As climate change has accelerated since the middle of the last century, buildings have been built with energy efficiency in mind. Along with improved construction standards, this has led to buildings that are more airtight and more comfortable for the occupants. In the past few years however, reducing indoor air pollution levels has become the primary concern for designers of ventilation systems.

“These two concerns are related, but different, and there is tension between them, which has been highlighted during the pandemic,” said Dr Rajesh Bhagat, also from DAMTP. “Maximising ventilation, while at the same time keeping temperatures at a comfortable level without excessive energy consumption is a difficult balance to strike.”

In light of this, the Cambridge researchers took some of their earlier work on ventilation for efficiency and reinterpreted it for air quality, in order to determine the effects of ventilation on the distribution of airborne contaminants in a space.

“In order to model how the coronavirus or similar viruses spread indoors, you need to know where people’s breath goes when they exhale, and how that changes depending on ventilation,” said Linden. “Using this data, we can estimate the risk of catching the virus while indoors.”

The researchers explored a range of different modes of exhalation: nasal breathing, speaking and laughing, each both with and without a mask. By imaging the heat associated with the exhaled breath, they could see how it moves through the space in each case. If the person was moving around the room, the distribution of exhaled breath was markedly different as it became captured in their wake.

“You can see the change in temperature and density when someone breathes out warm air – it refracts the light and you can measure it,” said Bhagat. “When sitting still, humans give off heat, and since hot air rises, when you exhale, the breath rises and accumulates near the ceiling.”

Their results show that room flows are turbulent and can change dramatically depending on the movement of the occupants, the type of ventilation, the opening and closing of doors and, for naturally ventilated spaces, changes in outdoor conditions.

The researchers found that masks are effective at reducing the spread of exhaled breath, and therefore droplets.

“One thing we could clearly see is that one of the ways that masks work is by stopping the breath’s momentum,” said Linden. “While pretty much all masks will have a certain amount of leakage through the top and sides, it doesn’t matter that much, because slowing the momentum of any exhaled contaminants reduces the chance of any direct exchange of aerosols and droplets as the breath remains in the body’s thermal plume and is carried upwards towards the ceiling. Additionally, masks stop larger droplets, and a three-layered mask decreases the amount of those contaminants that are recirculated through the room by ventilation.”

The researchers found that laughing, in particular, creates a large disturbance, suggesting that if an infected person without a mask was laughing indoors, it would greatly increase the risk of transmission.

“Keep windows open and wear a mask appears to be the best advice,” said Linden. “Clearly that’s less of a problem in the summer months, but it’s a cause for concern in the winter months.”

The team are now working with the Department for Transport looking at the impacts of ventilation on aerosol transport in trains and with the Department for Education to assess risks in schools this coming winter.

Reference
Rajesh K. Bhagat et al. ‘Effects of ventilation on the indoor spread of COVID-19.’ Journal of Fluid Mechanics (2020). DOI: 10.1017/jfm.2020.720.

An international team of researchers, led by the University of Cambridge, has combined ring width and wood chemistry measurements from living and dead trees with soil characteristics and computer modelling to show that the damage done by decades of nickel and copper mining has not only devastated local environments, but also affected the global carbon cycle.

The extent of damage done to the boreal forest, the largest land biome on Earth, can be seen in the annual growth rings of trees near Norilsk where die off has spread up to 100 kilometres. The results are reported in the journal Ecology Letters.

Norilsk, in northern Siberia, is the world’s northernmost city with more than 100,000 people, and one of the most polluted places on Earth. Since the 1930s, intensive mining of the area’s massive nickel, copper and palladium deposits, combined with few environmental regulations, has led to severe pollution levels. A massive oil spill in May 2020 has added to the extreme level of environmental damage in the area.

Not only are the high level of airborne emissions from the Norilsk industrial complex responsible for the direct destruction of around 24,000 square kilometres of boreal forest since the 1960s, surviving trees across much of the high-northern latitudes are suffering as well. The high pollution levels cause declining tree growth, which in turn have an effect of the amount of carbon that can be sequestered in the boreal forest.

However, while the link between pollution and forest health is well-known, it has not been able to explain the ‘divergence problem’ in dendrochronology, or the study of tree rings: a decoupling of tree ring width from rising air temperatures seen since the 1970s.

Using the largest-ever dataset of tree rings from both living and dead trees to reconstruct the history and intensity of Norilsk’s forest dieback, the researchers have shown how the amount of pollution spewed into the atmosphere by mines and smelters is at least partially responsible for the phenomenon of ‘Arctic dimming’, providing new evidence to explain the divergence problem.

“Using the information stored in thousands of tree rings, we can see the effects of Norilsk’s uncontrolled environmental disaster over the past nine decades,” said Professor Ulf Büntgen from Cambridge’s Department of Geography, who led the research. “While the problem of sulphur emissions and forest dieback has been successfully addressed in much of Europe, for Siberia, we haven’t been able to see what the impact has been, largely due to a lack of long-term monitoring data.”

The expansion of annually-resolved and absolutely dated tree ring width measurements compiled by the paper’s first author Dr Alexander Kirdyanov, along with new high-resolution measurements of wood and soil chemistry, allowed the researchers to quantify the extent of Norilsk’s devastating ecosystem damage, which peaked in the 1960s.

“We can see that the trees near Norilsk started to die off massively in the 1960s due to rising pollution levels,” said Büntgen. “Since atmospheric pollution in the Arctic accumulates due to large-scale circulation patterns, we expanded our study far beyond the direct effects of Norilsk’s industrial sector and found that trees across the high-northern latitudes are suffering as well.”

The researchers used a process-based forward model of boreal tree growth, with and without surface irradiance forcing as a proxy for pollutants, to show that Arctic dimming since the 1970s has substantially reduced tree growth.

Arctic dimming is a phenomenon caused by increased particulates in the Earth’s atmosphere, whether from pollution, dust or volcanic eruptions. The phenomenon partially blocks out sunlight, slowing the process of evaporation and interfering with the hydrological cycle.

Global warming should be expected to increase the rate of boreal tree growth, but the researchers found that as the pollution levels peaked, the rate of tree growth in northern Siberia slowed. They found that the pollution levels in the atmosphere diminished the trees’ ability to turn sunlight into energy through photosynthesis, and so they were not able to grow as quickly or as strong as they would in areas with lower pollution levels.

“What surprised us is just how widespread the effects of industrial pollution are – the scale of the damage shows just how vulnerable and sensitive the boreal forest is,” said Büntgen. “Given the ecological importance of this biome, the pollution levels across the high-northern latitudes could have an enormous impact on the entire global carbon cycle.”

Reference:
Alexander V. Kidyanov et al. ‘Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution.’ Ecology Letters (2020). DOI: 10.1111/ele.13611

In an article published in Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, an international collaboration of data scientists and pharmaceutical industry experts – led by the Director of the Cambridge Centre for AI in Medicine, Professor Mihaela van der Schaar of the University of Cambridge – describes the impact that COVID-19 is having on clinical trials, and reveals how the latest machine learning (ML) approaches can help to overcome challenges that the pandemic presents.

The paper covers three areas of clinical trials in which ML can make contributions: in trials for repurposing drugs to treat COVID-19, trials for new drugs to treat COVID-19, and ongoing clinical trials for drugs unrelated to COVID-19.

The team, which includes scientists from pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis, notes that ‘the pandemic provides an opportunity to apply novel approaches that can be used in this challenging situation.’ They highlight the latest advances in reinforcement learning, causal inference and Bayesian approaches applied to clinical trial data.

The researchers considered it important to present the current state of the art in ML and to signpost how they used ML not only to address challenges presented by COVID-19 but also to take clinical trials in general to the next level, making them more efficient, robust and flexible.

In their paper, the researchers say that COVID-19 is:

• Reducing the ability/willingness of trial subjects and staff to access clinical sites, disrupting timely data collection or necessitating a move to virtual data collection.
• In some situations, causing delays or halting of clinical trials altogether.
• Revealing how the standard approach to clinical trials – time-consuming and inflexible randomised controlled trials in distinct trial phases – is inefficient, and not sufficient in a crisis such as this.

However, they say that machine learning can:

• Support in the creation of ‘virtual’ control groups. By integrating data across hospitals, data-driven methods can identify patients who have received standard treatments but are otherwise similar to patients who have received experimental treatments.
• Extract knowledge from the data of clinical trials suspended as a result of the pandemic to adjust design elements such as recruitment plans, sample sizes and treatment allocations.
• Improve the design, execution and evaluation of large, adaptive clinical trials for evaluating repurposed medications for COVID-19. Trials such as Solidarity (WHO 2020) and RECOVERY (Oxford 2020), which are underway, recruit patients at a multitude of sites randomly assigned across available treatment arms.
• Play an important role in finding patterns and signatures in COVID-19’s biomolecular behaviour, facilitating the identification and repurposing of existing drugs, as well as validating, in silico, whether new medicines may be effective.
• Exploit the large body of data generated by the experimental and compassionate use of drugs to treat COVID-19 to select future drug target for further clinical trials. ML methods for causal inference from observational data are especially well-suited to this task.
• Break the multi-phase paradigm of standard RCTs and convert the trial process into a more efficient, continuous and adaptive trial-collection-retrial loop. Use ML methodologies to learn simultaneously about toxicity and efficacy of a new drug, reducing learning time, making it particularly useful for time-sensitive clinical trials of COVID-19 treatments.

“The coronavirus pandemic represents the greatest global healthcare challenge of our generation,” said van der Schaar. “Now, and in the immediate future, the need is to identify, approve and distribute treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. Our recent work in machine learning for clinical trials has shown enormous promise. And while many of the technical issues discussed in our paper are particularly acute in the context of a pandemic, they are also highly relevant to ongoing clinical practice. It is my hope that machine learning will not only improve the execution and evaluation of clinical trials in the COVID-19 era, but also well beyond that.”

“Artificial intelligence is already making significant impact in several areas of medicine,” said co-author Professor Frank Bretz from Novartis. “Machine learning algorithms have proven to be equivalent or superior to expert clinicians in interpreting X-ray and MRI images and slides, for example. This new work aims to bridge the gap between the machine learning community and the data scientists who are engaged in clinical trials that are affected by or related to COVID-19. Adopting these new methods is critical to the pharmaceutical industry well beyond the current pandemic. What we learn in this effort will yield benefits that affect the entire future course of drug development and change the lives of patients across the world.”

Reference:
William R. Zame et al. ‘Machine Learning for Clinical Trials in the Era of COVID-19.’ Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research (2020). DOI: 10.1080/19466315.2020.1797867

In a study published today in the journal Nature, researchers looked at the biological pathways active in human embryos during their first few days of development to understand how cells acquire different fates and functions within the early embryo.

They observed that shortly after fertilisation as cells start to divide, some cells start to stick together. This triggers a cascade of molecular events that initiate placental development. A subset of cells change shape, or ‘polarise’, and this drives the change into a placental progenitor cell – the precursor to a specialised placenta cell – that can be distinguished by differences in genes and proteins from other cells in the embryo.

“This study highlights the critical importance of the placenta for healthy human development,” said Dr Kathy Niakan, group leader of the Human Embryo and Stem Cell Laboratory at the Francis Crick Institute and Professor of Reproductive Physiology at the University of Cambridge, and senior author of the study.

Niakan added: “If the molecular mechanism we discovered for this first cell decision in humans is not appropriately established, this will have significant negative consequences for the development of the embryo and its ability to successfully implant in the womb.”

The team also examined the same developmental pathways in mouse and cow embryos. They found that while the mechanisms of later stages of development differ between species, the placental progenitor is still the first cell to differentiate.

“We’ve shown that one of the earliest cell decisions during development is widespread in mammals, and this will help form the basis of future developmental research. Next we must further interrogate these pathways to identify biomarkers and facilitate healthy placental development in people, and also cows or other domestic animals,” said Claudia Gerri, lead author of the study and postdoctoral training fellow in the Human Embryo and Stem Cell Laboratory at the Francis Crick Institute.

During IVF, one of the most significant predictors of an embryo implanting in the womb is the appearance of placental progenitor cells under the microscope. If researchers could identify better markers of placental health or find ways to improve it, this could make a difference for people struggling to conceive.

“Understanding the process of early human development in the womb could provide us with insights that may lead to improvements in IVF success rates in the future. It could also allow us to understand early placental dysfunctions that can pose a risk to human health later in pregnancy,” said Niakan.

The research was led by scientists at the Francis Crick Institute, in collaboration with colleagues at the Royal Veterinary College, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Université de Nantes and Bourn Hall Clinic. Kathy Niakan is incoming Director of the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Trophoblast Research, and Chair of the Cambridge Strategic Research Initiative in Reproduction.

The work was funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome and Cancer Research UK. It was approved by the UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) and the Health Research Authority’s Research Ethics Committee.

Reference
Gerri, C. et al.: ‘Initiation of a conserved trophectoderm program in human, cow and mouse embryos.’ Nature, Sept 2020. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2759-x.

Adapted from a press release by the Francis Crick Institute.

In 2019, the case of ‘The London Patient’ made global headlines, as 40-year-old Adam Castillejo underwent a bone marrow transplant which both cured him of Hodgkins lymphoma, and eradicated the HIV virus from his system.

In his piece about Gupta for Time, Castillejo said, “Through the years, our partnership has developed and strengthened as Gupta has shared his knowledge and his enthusiasm to find a feasible cure for everyone. He has championed me and empowered me to become an ambassador of hope to millions of people living with HIV around the world…I’m so fortunate and humbled to know him, and to see how his dedication can conquer this disease.”

As Professor of Clinical Microbiology and Wellcome Trust Senior Fellow in Clinical Science at Cambridge, Ravi’s primary research focus is on the increasing problem of drug-resistant HIV, and the potential development of alternative treatments. He is also a Professorial Fellow at Homerton College.

Since March this year, however, his attention has been on COVID-19, and increasing our understanding of the virus which has brought the world to a standstill. Early on, his work to develop rapid testing transformed the ability of hospitals to isolate infected patients. He is now in regular demand as a commentator on our evolving knowledge about how COVID-19 works and what the next stage of its impact might be.

“In the future I want to keep doing COVID-19 research alongside the HIV research,” he said in June 2020. “This is partly because there’ll be plenty to do, and partly because I think there’s lots to learn that could translate to other viruses. The next pandemic may be a related virus, so we really do need to keep plugging away.”

In the message His Royal Highness said, “As we emerge from this crisis, the need to decarbonise flight must remain at the top of the agenda. While many are calling for net zero flight by 2050, I would like to challenge you all to think about halving that time frame to 2035.”

To achieve this target, he said “we must acknowledge that the decarbonisation of flight is technically possible. However, more focus is required if it is to be achieved in the necessary time scale.”

In January, The Prince of Wales launched the National Centre for Propulsion and Power at the University of Cambridge’s Whittle Laboratory. The Centre, which is due to open in 2023 will bring together researchers from across UK Universities with industry partners such as Rolls Royce, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens and Dyson to accelerate the development of low-carbon technologies for the propulsion and power sectors.

In his address yesterday, The Prince said: “In partnership with Rolls-Royce and funded by the UK Aerospace Technology Institute the Whittle Laboratory also demonstrated its ability to reduce the time taken to develop technologies by a factor of between 10 and 100, speeding up innovation and testing from months into days. This again proves that it is again possible to accelerate our efforts through resourcefulness and the right mindset. It is only through this type of radical change with industry, government and academia working together that we will have a chance of overcoming the climate and biodiversity challenge.”

Speaking after HRH, at the same conference, Glenn Llewellyn, VP of Zero Emission Aircraft at Airbus explained three concepts for the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft which could enter service by 2035 all codenamed “ZEROe”. The concepts each represent a different approach to achieving zero-emission flight, exploring various technology pathways and aerodynamic configurations in order to support Airbus’s ambition of leading the way in the decarbonisation of the entire aviation industry.

All of these concepts rely on hydrogen as a primary power source, an option which Airbus says it believes holds exceptional promise as a clean aviation fuel and is likely to be a solution for aerospace and many other industries to meet their climate-neutral targets.

Guillaume Faury, Airbus CEO, said: “This is a historic moment for the commercial aviation sector as a whole and we intend to play a leading role in the most important transition this industry has ever seen. The concepts we unveil today offer the world a glimpse of our ambition to drive a bold vision for the future of zero-emission flight. I strongly believe that the use of hydrogen – both in synthetic fuels and as a primary power source for commercial aircraft – has the potential to significantly reduce aviation’s climate impact.”

The planet orbits so close to its star that its year lasts only 19 hours, and stellar radiation heats the planet to over 1700 degrees Celsius.

At these temperatures, heavy elements like iron can be ionised in the atmosphere and molecules disassociated, providing a unique laboratory to study the chemistry of planets outside the solar system.

Although the planet weighs twice as much as Neptune, it is also slightly larger and has a similar density. Therefore, LTT 9779b should have a huge core of around 28 Earth masses, and an atmosphere that makes up around 9% of the total planetary mass.

The system itself is around two billion years old, and given the intense irradiation, a Neptune-like planet would not be expected to keep its atmosphere for so long, providing a puzzle for astronomers to solve; how such an improbable system came to be. The results are reported in the journal Nature Astronomy.

LTT 9779 is a Sun-like star located at a distance of 260 light years, a stone’s throw in astronomical terms. It is metal-rich, having twice the amount of iron in its atmosphere than the Sun. This could be a key indicator that the planet was originally a much larger gas giant, since these bodies tend to form close to stars with the highest iron abundances.

Initial indications of the existence of the planet were made using the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), as part of its mission to discover small transiting planets orbiting nearby and bright stars across the whole sky. Such transits are found when a planet passes directly in front of its parent star, blocking some of the starlight, and the amount of light blocked reveals the companion’s size. Planets like these, once fully confirmed, can allow astronomers to investigate their atmospheres, providing a deeper understanding of planet formation and evolution processes.

The transit signal was confirmed in early November 2018 as originating from a planetary mass body, using observations taken at the ESO la Silla Observatory in northern Chile. HARPS uses the Doppler Wobble method to measure planet masses and orbital characteristics. When objects are found to transit, Doppler measurements can be organized to confirm the planetary nature in an efficient manner. In the case of LTT 9779b, the team were able to confirm the planet’s existence after only one week of observations.

Professor James Jenkins from the Department of Astronomy at the Universidad de Chile, who led the team, said: “The discovery of LTT 9779b so early in the TESS mission was a complete surprise; a gamble that paid off. The majority of transit events with periods less than one day turnout to be false-positives, normally background eclipsing binary stars.”

The planet was uncovered in only the second of 26 sectors of observations that TESS would be observing across the whole sky. Since no similar types of planets were detected in the TESS precursor missions Kepler and K2, the finding was even more exciting.

“We selected this candidate from a TESS alert due to its very short orbital period. After inspecting the light curve, we found it was a good candidate for an upcoming week-long observation campaign using the HARPS spectrograph in La Silla,” said co-author Matías Díaz, also from the Universidad de Chile. “We planned the observations carefully, to maximize the use of the spectrograph and sample the orbit of the candidate in an optimal way. During the first nights of data we saw the observations matched the predicted period of the candidate. Further analysis of the seven nights of observations in November were consistent with a massive Neptune planet.”

LTT 9779b exists in the ‘Neptunian Desert’, a region devoid of planets when we look at the population of planetary masses and sizes. Although icy giants seem to be a fairly common by-product of the planet formation process, this is not the case very close to their stars. The researchers believe these planets get stripped of their atmospheres over cosmic time, ending up as so-called Ultra Short Period planets.

The Kepler mission found that Ultra Short Period planets, those that orbit their stars in one day or less, come mainly in the form of large gas giants or small rocky planets. Models tell us that planets like LTT 9779b should be stripped of their atmospheres through a process called photoevaporation as they move close to their stars. The large gas giants, on the other hand, have strong gravitational fields that can hold onto their atmospheres, and so we end up with a dearth of planets like Neptune with the shortest orbital periods.

“Planetary structure models tell us that the planet is a giant core dominated world, but crucially, there should exist two to three Earth-masses of atmospheric gas,” said Jenkins. “But if the star is so old, why does any atmosphere exist at all? Well, if LTT 9779b started life as a gas giant, then a process called Roche Lobe Overflow could have transferred significant amounts of the atmospheric gas onto the star.”

Roche Lobe Overflow is a process whereby a planet comes so close to its star that the star’s stronger gravity can capture the outer layers of the planet, causing it to transfer onto the star and so significantly decreasing the mass of the planet. Models predict outcomes similar to that of the LTT 9779 system, but they also require some fine-tuning.

“It could also be that LTT 9779b arrived at its current orbit quite late in the day, and so hasn’t had time to be stripped of the atmosphere. Collisions with other planets in the system could have thrown it inwards towards the star. Indeed, since it is such a unique and rare world, more exotic scenarios may be plausible,” said Jenkins.

Members of the Cambridge Astronomy department are part of the Next-Generation Transit Survey (NGTS). The NGTS team conducted follow-up observations of LT9779b’s transit to help confirm the planetary nature of the system and better constrain its properties.

“LTT 9779b is an intriguing planet, being the first of its kind discovered,” said co-author Dr Ed Gillen, from Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory. “It is particularly exciting because of its peculiarity: how did this planet come to arrive on such a short period orbit and why does it still possess an atmosphere? Fortunately, the planetary system is located nearby so we can study it in detail, which promises new insights into how such planets come to be and what they are made of.”

Reference:
James S. Jenkins et al. ‘An ultrahot Neptune in the Neptune desert.’ Nature Astronomy (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41550-020-1142-z

Adapted from a Universidad de Chile press release.

India has reported nearly five million COVID-19 cases and well over 80,000 deaths (as of 17 September 2020), making the country one of the worst hit in the world. But an even greater tragedy may have unfolded had India’s government not used nudge theory to maintain one of the world’s strictest and longest lockdowns in the first quarter of the year. This is the view of a new study by Ramit Debnath and Dr Ronita Bardhan from Cambridge’s Behaviour and Building Performance Group, Department of Architecture.

Using machine learning and AI-based algorithms to analyse almost 400 government press releases, they show how India nudged across 14 key policy areas to influence the behaviour of 1.3 billion people, including government employees, scientists, health professionals, manufacturers, food suppliers and students to help fight COVID-19. The researchers argue that nudges from India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, were particularly important in creating herd effect on lockdown and social distancing norms across the nation.

The study, published in PLoS ONE, found that the government deployed nudge techniques to tackle a wide range of urgent challenges between 15 January and 14 April 2020. Nudging is a design-based public policy approach which uses positive and negative reinforcements to modify the behaviour of a population.

In January and February, policy nudges were focused on evaluating the risk of incoming travellers from China and extending surveillance at international airports. But the narrative soon shifted to address other pressing concerns. By March, nudges sought to impose new restrictions on travel, discouraging people from visiting crowded and public spaces, and strict social distancing. On 24 March, Modi told the nation that “21 days is critical to breaking the infection cycle… or else the country and your family could be set back 21 years”. The next day, the country entered phase 1 of lockdown.

The government nudged to tackle fake news about the virus and to convince the population to strictly adhere to the rules, use masks and wash hand frequently. At the same time, it conducted surveillance in urban areas using smart technologies that included drones, spatial analysis, low-power Bluetooth mobile phone applications and humanoid robots.

Ramit Debnath said: “Nudge-based policy approaches are crucial in a democratic country like India which has a vast population and geo-spatial divide, high levels of illiteracy and an extremely vulnerable health system.”

Ronita Bardhan added: “The government urgently needed to buy time and it had to bring a deeply divided population together to fight a common struggle – this was a huge challenge. Our findings show that the government needed much more than scientific data to convince people, they appealed to powerful values including patriotism, family, religion and community.”

The study highlights the role played by the ‘Prime Minister’s Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund’ (PM CARES Fund) which was created to nudge the public to make micro-donations and encourage public participation to help tackle the crisis. On 5 April, the Prime Minister nudged people to voluntarily switch off their lights for ten minutes in solidarity with frontline workers. Most of these nudges were made with social media advertisements, SMS forwards and broadcast media.

The study found that government ministries nudged India’s manufacturing firms to produce PPE, hand sanitiser and masks to meet the national demand, while also seeking to protect the country’s food security and supply chains at a critical time – India’s farmers harvest their winter crops from February to April.

Meanwhile, the government spurred on India’s scientific community to fight the pandemic, releasing funding through the Department of Science and Technology. Research institutions were encouraged to submit proposals to focus on the development of affordable diagnostics, vaccines, antivirals, disease models, and other R&D to study COVID-19.

Scientific innovation during this period included robots for encouraging social distancing in public spaces and healthcare centres; and a contact tracing app (AarogyaSetu) using GPS and Bluetooth. Frequent SMS reminders were used to nudge people to use the app. The Ministry of Human Resource Development also nudged the start-up and innovation community in India to participate in the fight for COVID-19 by launching programs like ‘Fight Corona IDEAthon’.

To support education, the government encouraged home-schooling by aggressively advertising the use of the National Digital Library of India. The government even harnessed nostalgia to help keep people at home during lockdown by broadcasting popular ‘80s and ‘90s TV shows on the national channel, Doordarshan.

The study demonstrates how nudge strategies evolved as the crisis unfolded. Between January and the first week of March, for instance, one government ministry (AYUSH) was aggressively nudging people to follow the traditional medicinal practice of Ayurveda and to maintain good health through yoga to increase immunity, while also insisting on disciplined personal hygiene. However, in mid-March, as infection rates increased, the nudges shifted away from traditional treatments to promoting a healthy lifestyle using hashtags like #YOGAathome.

The researchers used topic modelling, a computational social science method that has its basis in text mining and natural language processing. It automatically analyses text data to determine cluster words for a set of documents.

The Government started lifting lockdown restrictions on 7 June 2020, and the spread of the virus has since accelerated. But the benefits of the government’s nudge campaign are still being felt, the researchers believe. Ronita Bardhan says: “Behaviour changes encouraged by nudges earlier in the year, including the wearing of masks and social distancing, are still widely maintained across India. These nudges are still helping to save lives.”

The study does not attempt to assess the success or failure of the Government of India’s policy interventions, rather to understand how context-specific latent nudges were created through policy interventions.

Ramit Debnath is a Gates Cambridge Scholar at Churchill College; Dr Ronita Bardhan is University Lecturer of Sustainability in the Built Environment and a Fellow at Selwyn College.

Reference

R. Debnath R & R. Bardhan, ‘India nudges to contain COVID-19 pandemic: A reactive public policy analysis using machine-learning based topic modelling’, PLoS ONE (2020). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238972. 

Now cutting-edge DNA sequencing of more than 400 Viking skeletons from archaeological sites scattered across Europe and Greenland will rewrite the history books as it has shown:

• Skeletons from famous Viking burial sites in Scotland were actually local people who could have taken on Viking identities and were buried as Vikings.
• Many Vikings actually had brown hair not blonde hair.
• Viking identity was not limited to people with Scandinavian genetic ancestry. The study shows the genetic history of Scandinavia was influenced by foreign genes from Asia and Southern Europe before the Viking Age.
• Early Viking Age raiding parties were an activity for locals and included close family members.
• The genetic legacy in the UK has left the population with up to six per cent Viking DNA.

Results of the six-year research project, published in the journal Nature, debunk the modern image of Vikings and was led by Professor Eske Willerslev, a Fellow of St John’s College, University of Cambridge, and director of The Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, University of Copenhagen.

“We have this image of well-connected Vikings mixing with each other, trading and going on raiding parties to fight Kings across Europe because this is what we see on television and read in books – but genetically we have shown for the first time that it wasn’t that kind of world,” said Willerslev, who is also affiliated with Cambridge’s Department of Zoology. “This study changes the perception of who a Viking actually was – no one could have predicted these significant gene flows into Scandinavia from Southern Europe and Asia happened before and during the Viking Age.”

The word Viking comes from the Scandinavian term ‘vikingr’ meaning ‘pirate’. The Viking Age generally refers to the period from AD800, a few years after the earliest recorded raid, until the 1050s, a few years before the Norman Conquest of England in 1066.

The Vikings changed the political and genetic course of Europe and beyond: Cnut the Great became the King of England, Leif Eriksson is believed to have been the first European to reach North America – 500 years before Christopher Columbus – and Olaf Tryggvason is credited with taking Christianity to Norway. Many expeditions involved raiding monasteries and cities along the coastal settlements of Europe, but the goal of trading goods like fur, tusks and seal fat was often the more pragmatic aim.

“We didn’t know genetically what they actually looked like until now,” said Willerslev. “We found genetic differences between different Viking populations within Scandinavia which shows Viking groups in the region were far more isolated than previously believed. Our research even debunks the modern image of Vikings with blonde hair as many had brown hair and were influenced by genetic influx from the outside of Scandinavia.”

The international team sequenced the whole genomes of 442 mostly Viking Age men, women, children and babies from their teeth and petrous bones found in Viking cemeteries. They analysed the DNA from the remains from a boat burial in Estonia and discovered four Viking brothers died the same day. The scientists have also revealed male skeletons from a Viking burial site in Orkney, Scotland, were not actually genetically Vikings despite being buried with swords and other Viking memorabilia.

There wasn’t a word for Scandinavia during the Viking Age – that came later. But the study shows that the Vikings from what is now Norway travelled to Ireland, Scotland, Iceland and Greenland. The Vikings from what is now Denmark travelled to England. And Vikings from what is now Sweden went to the Baltic countries on their all-male ‘raiding parties’.

“We carried out the largest ever DNA analysis of Viking remains to explore how they fit into the genetic picture of Ancient Europeans before the Viking Age,” said co-first author Dr Ashot Margaryan from the University of Copenhagen. “The results were startling and some answer long-standing historical questions and confirm previous assumptions that lacked evidence.

“We determined that a Viking raiding party expedition included close family members as we discovered four brothers in one boat burial in Estonia who died the same day. The rest of the occupants of the boat were genetically similar suggesting that they all likely came from a small town or village somewhere in Sweden.”

DNA from the Viking remains were shotgun sequenced from sites in Greenland, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, Poland and Russia.

“We found that Vikings weren’t just Scandinavians in their genetic ancestry, as we analysed genetic influences in their DNA from Southern Europe and Asia which has never been contemplated before,” said co-first author Professor Martin Sikora form the University of Copenhagen. “Many Vikings have high levels of non-Scandinavian ancestry, both within and outside Scandinavia, which suggest ongoing gene flow across Europe.”

The team’s analysis also found that genetically Pictish people ‘became’ Vikings without genetically mixing with Scandinavians. The Picts were Celtic-speaking people who lived in what is today eastern and northern Scotland during the Late British Iron Age and Early Medieval periods.

“Individuals with two genetically British parents who had Viking burials were found in Orkney and Norway,” said co-first author Dr Daniel Lawson from the University of Bristol. “This is a different side of the cultural relationship from Viking raiding and pillaging.”

The Viking Age altered the political, cultural and demographic map of Europe in ways that are still evident today in place names, surnames and modern genetics.

“Scandinavian diasporas established trade and settlement stretching from the American continent to the Asian steppe,” said co-author Professor Søren Sindbæk from Moesgaard Museum in Denmark. “They exported ideas, technologies, language, beliefs and practices and developed new socio-political structures. Importantly our results show that ‘Viking’ identity was not limited to people with Scandinavian genetic ancestry. Two Orkney skeletons who were buried with Viking swords in Viking style graves are genetically similar to present-day Irish and Scottish people and could be the earliest Pictish genomes ever studied.”

“This is the first time we can take a detailed look at the evolution of variants under natural selection in the last 2,000 years of European history,” said co-first author Professor Fernando Racimo from the University of Copenhagen. “The Viking genomes allow us to disentangle how selection unfolded before, during and after the Viking movements across Europe, affecting genes associated with important traits like immunity, pigmentation and metabolism. We can also begin to infer the physical appearance of ancient Vikings and compare them to Scandinavians today.”

The genetic legacy of the Viking Age lives on today with six per cent of people of the UK population predicted to have Viking DNA in their genes compared to 10 per cent in Sweden.

“The results change the perception of who a Viking actually was. The history books will need to be updated,” said Willerslev.

Reference:
Ashot Margaryan et al. ‘Population genomics of the Viking world.’ Nature (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2688-8

Adapted from a St John’s College press release.

The researchers argue that investing in the training of refugee doctors is a very effective way to help fill gaps in care provision left exposed by the COVID-19 crisis – taking far less time and money than it does to train a doctor from scratch.

By converting already-skilled people to medical work in the areas where they now live – often regions of European countries in short supply of doctors, nurses, dentists, and so on – it will help move the refugees out of poverty while bolstering the local health services of their adopted homes.

A new short film made by Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Global Human Movement and the Syria Public Health Network (SPHN) follows three refugees in the UK, Germany and Turkey as they set about retraining while discussing their lives new and old, and experiences of escaping war-torn Syria.

The film was produced by Dr Adam Coutts from Cambridge’s Department of Sociology, a cofounder of SPHN, which aims to address policy challenges arising in the humanitarian health response. SPHN provides advocacy, policy briefs and evidence reviews to donors, NGOs and UN agencies.

“Syrian healthcare workers, as with many other displaced professionals, are a well-educated and highly skilled workforce. Their experiences have important policy, economic, humanitarian and academic implications,” said Coutts.

“Thousands of qualified health professionals in Syria have left the country since 2011 due to military attacks on clinics and hospitals. These essential workers now find themselves excluded from formal job opportunities and sliding into poverty in host communities in the Middle East and Europe.”

“They have already been through enough trauma in escaping a war zone. In the policy to build, build, build it is a great waste to not use their skills!” Coutts said.

One of the refugee medics featured in the film, Ba’raa Krebeh, who fled Homs, Syria in 2019, but now lives in Grimsby, UK. “After I got my status I started to look for any opportunity or organisation that could help refugee doctors,” said Krebeh.

He has been assisted by the Lincolnshire Refugee Doctor Project, who helped the 29-year-old medic with housing and support for courses and exams. Krebeh is now working to pass his English test, which he hopes to do in the next couple of months, then will aim to take medical exams and get a hospital placement.

When asked about his future, Krebeh said: “I think I will be here, practising in a hospital in Grimsby.” He hopes to be working as a surgeon in five years’ time.

“Much more investment and policy attention needs to be given for services such as the Lincolnshire NGO that support refugee doctors and speed up the process of recertification and recruitment,” said Dr Aula Abbara a consultant in infectious diseases at Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust who also co-chairs the Syria Public Health Network.

“These doctors are usually among the top academic achievers in their cohorts. They may be able to work in specialties where we have shortage in the UK. It’s the same in countries like Germany, where there is a shortfall of thousands of doctors and nurses at present – one expected to become even greater as the population ages,” said Abbara.

“It really is in our interest that we support refugee doctors to enter our workforce. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis we are in desperate need of their knowledge and skills.”

Coutts points out that the ongoing exodus of highly skilled workers from Syria, Iraq and North Africa – characteristic of protracted crises in middle-income, largely urban settings – affects the ability of aid organisations and governments to deliver humanitarian assistance.

“Available evidence on post-conflict reconstruction shows that rebuilding the health workforce is one of the top priorities,” said Coutts. “Employing refugee health workers can help to provide a foundation for the rebuilding of a destroyed health system’.

The World Health Organisation estimates a shortfall of 18 million health workers to accelerate universal health coverage by 2030, particularly in low to middle income countries.

Coutts and colleagues argue that displaced healthcare professionals present major opportunities for host communities in the Middle East and the economies of Europe, by strengthening health and welfare systems in the Middle East, Europe and the UK.

Added Coutts: “Our film shows success stories, but these are few. With more support like the Lincolnshire programme many others could return to their vocations quickly and effectively. We think the integration of refugee doctors should be a political priority in countries such as the UK. Health services in the UK and across Europe needs these people.”

Research from Cambridge criminologists suggests that those charged with drug cultivation have often been forced into illegal work as a condition of debt to criminal gangs for smuggling them into the UK.

The researchers, including a Detective Inspector who completed a Masters at Cambridge’s Institute of Criminology, argue that police take too narrow a view of modern slavery when it comes to ‘growers’ arrested during cannabis farm raids.

While growers – often Vietnamese nationals – are not always imprisoned within farms, many work under threat of extreme violence towards themselves or family back home, with little in the way of language or contacts in the UK.

The researchers say that arresting officers often lack detailed training on modern slavery, and make only ‘perfunctory’ enquiries: a brief question that places the onus on a victim who doesn’t understand their own situation.

As such, migrants end up serving years in UK prisons despite being forced to commit the cultivation crimes by gangs who seize passports and threaten – and administer – violence.

“The abuses of freedom in cannabis farm cases do not tally with traditional perceptions of slavery. Victims may be held against their will, forced to work and unable to leave, despite an unlocked door,” said Prof Heather Strang, the study’s senior author.

“Big questions remain about how the criminal justice system should ethically manage modern slavery victims who are also illegal immigrants involved in illegal activity,” she said.

The new study, published in the Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, was co-authored by DI Adam Ramiz of Surrey Police as part of his research at Cambridge, where he worked with Strang and Prof Paul Rock from LSE.

Cannabis farms are unassuming abodes in towns and city suburbs that house hundreds of plants in blacked-out rooms, grown with equipment such specialist lighting. A live-in ‘grower’ will work for criminal gangs to feed and protect the Class B drug crop.

The latest study is small in scale – gaining access to growers willing to talk is difficult – but criminologists say that it’s an important addition to this under-researched area.

The team looked at criminal histories of 19 Vietnamese nationals arrested in connection with cannabis farming in Surrey and Sussex between 2014-2017, and conducted in-depth interviews with three further growers – two Vietnamese and an Albanian – as well as the arresting officers in those cases.

The growers all described being in hock to human smugglers, working in farms to pay debts, and some spoke of death threats and physical intimidation. Two spoke of dangerous journeys to the UK via lorries, similar to the 39 Vietnamese nationals found dead in Essex last year.

One witnessed murder by smugglers while trekking for days through forests. Another was locked inside the house once in the UK. The victims didn’t consider themselves such, as they had wanted to come here, yet had been forced into illegal labour on arrival: smuggling that becomes trafficking.

Interviews with officers revealed police questioning on slavery to be limited, cursory and ‘binary’ – whether or not the grower was physically locked in – and conducted with a presumption of guilt on the that the grower is an offender.

“We found that some officers only had an hour of modern slavery training, and felt that the onus is on trafficking victims to volunteer that information, rather than police to investigate further,” said Ramiz, who led the study.

“The brief question or two on slavery will often come after a grower has been given the standard legal advice to say nothing and later to plead guilty,” he said.

Police frustrations focus on growers, with one officer talking of “hitting a brick wall” if they won’t open up, but researchers say that the legal advice offered to trafficked cannabis growers is routine and uncritical: “go quietly”.

They argue that police should ‘re-frame’ their response to cannabis farms so that the possibility of modern slavery is “more fully considered”, and suggest detailed training for front-line officers along with greater willingness to refer cases to specialist investigators.

Dame Sara Thornton, the UK’s Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner, described the study as a “welcome contribution to building an evidence-based approach to preventing modern slavery”.

“The Modern Slavery Act includes a statutory defence for those compelled to commit an offence as a direct result of their being a victim of modern slavery. It is essential that the police investigate all lines of enquiry when they come across these complicated cases,” said Thornton.

Added Ramiz: “While much more research is needed, these accounts of debt bondage and fierce intimidation suggests the mass cultivation of cannabis is rife with modern slavery, and the grey area between offender and victim in these cases can become a blind spot for UK police.”

Case study:

A 34-year-old Vietnamese man now in an English prison for growing cannabis told researchers he had been a taxi driver, before fleeing his home after taking part in protests against a Chinese oil rig in the disputed South China sea.

Accused of betraying his country by police, he entered into contract with a smuggler after fearing for his life when a friend disappeared following arrest. Unable to pay in full, he ended up in debt bondage to a criminal gang.

Believing he was going to the UK to work in kitchens, the grower found himself in a series of lorries and flights across China and Russia, and taken into Europe via the forests of Poland.

“You have to walk for maybe two, three days… I saw one person had been beaten up… when I turned around he was unconscious… he walked too slow,” the grower told researchers. He believed the person he described had died.

The grower arrived in the UK in a lorry container. He was eventually taken to a house already full of cannabis plants and shown how to tend them, and given an allowance for food and phone calls home.

“I do not dare leave the house without telling them, because I fear for my life… They told me if I tried to escape they would harm my family,” said the grower.

He remembered police asking some questions about being forced to work, and he had told them. His legal advisor asked no such questions. He did not consider himself a trafficking victim, as he had wanted to come to the UK.

The police interviewer of the grower was a 33-year-old probationary police officer. He had been given an interview plan, and told researchers he viewed the matter in simple terms: “…you’re interviewing him as a suspect to get a confession, or to get the points across to get the conviction or charge…”.

No trafficking questions were in the officer’s plan, but he asked some anyway based on the grower’s response. The officer acknowledged his ignorance of modern slavery legislation to researchers.

A further interview was done by the officer’s supervisor, who was in charge of the investigation. He told researchers the training given to police on slavery – one hour-long session – was insufficient, and until guidance improved they had to rely on instinct.

The officer-in-charge entered a submission to the National Referral Mechanism – the framework set up in 2009 to ensure victims of trafficking receive help. The NRM returned a decision that the grower had “consented” to the illegal work, so was not a victim, and he was sentenced to prison.

Astronomers have speculated for decades that high clouds on Venus could offer a home for microbes – floating free of the scorching surface, but tolerating very high acidity. The detection of phosphine molecules, which consist of hydrogen and phosphorus, is an important step in the search for life beyond Earth, a key question in science. The results are reported in the journal Nature Astronomy.

The discovery was made by Professor Jane Greaves while she was a visitor at the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Astronomy. Greaves and her collaborators used the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) in Hawaii to detect the phosphine, and followed up their discovery on the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in Chile. Both facilities observe Venus at a wavelength of about 1 millimetre, much longer than the human eye can see.

“This was an experiment made out of pure curiosity, really – taking advantage of JCMT’s powerful technology, and thinking about future instruments,” said Greaves, who is based at Cardiff University. “I thought we’d just be able to rule out extreme scenarios, like the clouds being stuffed full of organisms. When we got the first hints of phosphine in Venus’ spectrum, it was a shock!”

Luckily, conditions were good at ALMA for follow-up observations while Venus was at a suitable angle to Earth. Processing the data was challenging, however, as ALMA isn’t usually looking for subtle effects in bright objects like Venus.

“In the end, we found that both observatories had seen the same thing – faint absorption at the right wavelength to be phosphine gas, where the molecules are backlit by the warmer clouds below,” said Greaves.

Using existing models of the Venusian atmosphere to interpret the data, the researchers found that phosphine is present but scarce – only about twenty molecules in every billion. The astronomers then ran calculations to see if the phosphine could come from natural processes on Venus. They caution that some information is lacking – in fact, the only other study of phosphorus on Venus came from one lander experiment, carried by the Soviet Vega 2 mission in 1985.

On Earth, phosphine is only made industrially or by microbes that thrive in oxygen-free environments. Co-author Dr William Bains from MIT led the work on assessing natural ways to make phosphine on Venus. Ideas included sunlight, minerals blown upwards from the surface, volcanoes, or lightning, but none of these could make anywhere near enough. Natural sources were found to make at most one ten-thousandth of the amount of phosphine that the telescopes saw.

To create the observed quantity of phosphine on Venus, terrestrial organisms would only need to work at about 10% of their maximum productivity, according to calculations by co-author Dr Paul Rimmer of Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences. Any microbes on Venus will likely be very different from their Earth cousins though, to survive in hyper-acidic conditions.

“This discovery brings us right to the shores of the unknown,” said Rimmer, who is also affiliated with Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory. “Phosphine is very hard to make in the oxygen-rich, hydrogen-poor clouds of Venus and fairly easy to destroy. The presence of life is the only known explanation for the amount of phosphine inferred by observations.

“Both of these facts lie at the edge of our knowledge: the observations could be caused by an unknown molecule, or could be caused by chemistry we’re not aware of. Ultimately, the only way to find out what’s really happening is to send a mission into the clouds of Venus to take a sample of the droplets and look at them to see what’s inside.”

Earth bacteria can absorb phosphate minerals, add hydrogen, and ultimately expel phosphine gas. It costs them energy to do this, so why they do it is not clear. The phosphine could be just a waste product, but other scientists have suggested purposes like warding off rival bacteria.

Co-author Dr Clara Sousa Silva from MIT was also thinking about searching for phosphine as a ‘biosignature’ gas of non-oxygen-using life on planets around other stars because normal chemistry makes so little of it. “Finding phosphine on Venus was an unexpected bonus,” she said. “The discovery raises many questions, such as how any organisms could survive. On Earth, some microbes can cope with up to about 5% acid in their environment – but the clouds of Venus are almost entirely made of acid.”

Other possible biosignatures in the Solar System may exist, like methane on Mars and water venting from the icy moons Europa and Enceladus. On Venus, it has been suggested that dark streaks where ultraviolet light is absorbed could come from colonies of microbes. The Akatsuki spacecraft, launched by the Japanese space agency JAXA, is currently mapping these dark streaks to understand more about this unknown ultraviolet absorber.

The team believes their discovery is significant because they can rule out many alternative ways to make phosphine, but they acknowledge that confirming the presence of ‘life’ needs a lot more work. Although the high clouds of Venus have temperatures up to a pleasant 30 degrees Celsius, they are incredibly acidic – around 90% sulphuric acid – posing major issues for microbes to survive there. The researchers are investigating the possibility that the microbes could shield themselves inside droplets.

The team is now awaiting more telescope time to establish whether the phosphine is in a relatively temperate part of the clouds and to look for other gases associated with life. New space missions could also travel to our neighbouring planet, and sample the clouds to search for signs of life.

Professor Emma Bunce, President of the Royal Astronomical Society, said: “A key question in science is whether life exists beyond Earth, and the discovery by Professor Jane Greaves and her team is a key step forward in that quest. I’m particularly delighted to see UK scientists leading such an important breakthrough – something that makes a strong case for a return space mission to Venus.”

Reference:
Jane S. Greaves et al. ‘Phosphine Gas in the Cloud Decks of Venus.’ Nature Astronomy (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41550-020-1174-4

Adapted from an RAS press release.

A new analysis of the successes and failures of green energy companies in the US has found that those with ARPA funding filed for far more patents in the years after launching than other “cleantech” startups from the same time.

The “innovation advantage” bestowed by ARPA-E – an energy version of the legendary DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) – was not shared by startups funded via other US government initiatives.

ARPA-type agencies were developed in the US to fund “high risk, high reward” research with the aim of fostering major breakthroughs, often by providing greater freedom to take on highly ambitious technical challenges.

The new findings offer encouragement to a UK government considering its own British ARPA (or ‘BARPA’), but any agency adopting this model requires a focus in order to flourish – and BARPA’s should be climate, argues Professor Laura Diaz Anadon from the University of Cambridge.

“Our US-based research points to the value of ARPA agencies. The UK may well benefit from such an approach in a post-pandemic world, given the technological capital within its universities and private sector,” said Anadon, co-author of the US innovation study.

“The UK should adapt the ARPA model to create an agency for the climate challenge as part of any COVID-19 recovery package. Focusing research and development on next-generation energy storage and renewables, and solutions for decarbonizing shipping, aviation and construction, could boost productivity and deliver large benefits to society,” said Anadon.

Dr Anna Goldstein, first author of the study from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said: “ARPA is not a one-size-fits-all solution. ARPA agencies are mission-focused, and there is no evidence to suggest this model would work well as a fund for general science and technology.”

The research was conducted by the University of Cambridge, UK (Prof. Laura Diaz Anadon), the University of Massachusetts Amherst, US (Dr. Anna Goldstein and Prof. Erin Baker), and the Technical University of Munich in Germany (Prof. Claudia Doblinger). It is published today in the journal Nature Energy.

ARPA-E was established at the US Department of Energy under Obama, using a portion of the economic stimulus package that followed the 2009 financial crisis. To date, it has allocated US$3.38 billion.

The aim was to accelerate innovation in “clean” technologies such as biofuels, smart grids and solar power at a time when it was out of favour with Venture Capital investors, due in part to long development cycles and low initial returns.

For the latest study, researchers investigated whether ARPA-E – a “posterchild” of mission-orientated innovation now under threat from the Trump administration – had translated its unique approach into real-world success.

By constructing a database of 1,287 US cleantech startups, and using patents as a proxy for innovation, they found that companies funded by a fledgling ARPA-E in 2010 went on to file patents at an average of twice the rate of other green energy companies in the years that followed.

The researchers also measured “business success” by looking at how many companies were taken public or acquired by larger firms, as well as levels of private VC funding and overall survival rates.

While ARPA-funded companies do better than those turned down by ARPA-E, in general they fare no better or worse than other cleantech startups with the same amount of patents and private funding before 2010.

As such, the researchers argue that ARPA-E support alone does not bridge the “valley of death”: the phase between initial funding injection and revenue generation during which startups often fold.

Goldstein said: “It appears that ARPA-E helps startups working on riskier but potentially more disruptive technologies to reach the same levels of success as other, less risky, cleantech firms.”

“However, there is still a need for public funding to bring innovations in clean technology through the ‘valley of death’ so they can become commercial products that compete with legacy technologies and reduce emissions.”

Writing for Cambridge Zero, the University’s new climate change initiative, Laura Diaz Anadon points out that, at just 1.7% of GDP, the UK lags in R&D investment: below the EU28 average, and way behind the US, South Korea and Japan.

“While the UK dramatically increased energy investment over the last 20 years, it is still below the levels this country saw in the 1970s and 1980s,” said Anadon, Professor of Climate Change Policy at the University of Cambridge.

“My co-authors and I would recommend trialing a UK version of ARPA-E that can ramp up energy innovation, and support selected projects through to demonstration phase. R&D investments in energy transition would be an inexpensive but essential component of a Covid-19 recovery package.”

“The UK has solid recent experience in the energy space, but in the past several initiatives have fallen prey to volatile government funding before success can be properly gauged. Future efforts will need consistency as well as a set up that would enable state-of-the-art and independent evaluation.”

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge, used a numerical experiment to determine the limits of matt structural colour – a phenomenon which is responsible for some of the most intense colours in nature – and found that it extends only as far as blue and green in the visible spectrum. The results, published in PNAS, could be useful in the development of non-toxic paints or coatings with intense colour that never fades.

Structural colour, which is seen in some bird feathers, butterfly wings or insects, is not caused by pigments or dyes, but internal structure alone. The appearance of the colour, whether matt or iridescent, will depending on how the structures are arranged at the nanoscale.

Ordered, or crystalline, structures result in iridescent colours, which change when viewed from different angles. Disordered, or correlated, structures result in angle-independent matt colours, which look the same from any viewing angle. Since structural colour does not fade, these angle-independent matt colours would be highly useful for applications such as paints or coatings, where metallic effects are not wanted.

“In addition to their intensity and resistance to fading, a matt paint which uses structural colour would also be far more environmentally-friendly, as toxic dyes and pigments would not be needed,” said first author Gianni Jacucci from Cambridge’s Department of Chemistry. “However, we first need to understand what the limitations are for recreating these types of colours before any commercial applications are possible.”

“Most of the examples of structural colour in nature are iridescent – so far, examples of naturally-occurring matt structural colour only exist in blue or green hues,” said co-author Lukas Schertel. “When we’ve tried to artificially recreate matt structural colour for reds or oranges, we end up with a poor-quality result, both in terms of saturation and colour purity.”

The researchers, who are based in the lab of Dr Silvia Vignolini, used numerical modelling to determine the limitations of creating saturated, pure and matt red structural colour.

The researchers modelled the optical response and colour appearance of nanostructures, as found in the natural world. They found that saturated, matt structural colours cannot be recreated in the red region of the visible spectrum, which might explain the absence of these hues in natural systems.

“Because of the complex interplay between single scattering and multiple scattering, and contributions from correlated scattering, we found that in addition to red, yellow and orange can also hardly be reached,” said Vignolini.

Despite the apparent limitations of structural colour, the researchers say these can be overcome by using other kinds of nanostructures, such as network structures or multi-layered hierarchical structures, although these systems are not fully understood yet.

Reference:
Gianni Jacucci et al. ‘The limitations of extending nature’s colour palette in correlated, disordered systems.’ PNAS (2020). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2010486117

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge, used a numerical experiment to determine the limits of matt structural colour – a phenomenon which is responsible for some of the most intense colours in nature – and found that it extends only as far as blue and green in the visible spectrum. The results, published in PNAS, could be useful in the development of non-toxic paints or coatings with intense colour that never fades.

Structural colour, which is seen in some bird feathers, butterfly wings or insects, is not caused by pigments or dyes, but internal structure alone. The appearance of the colour, whether matt or iridescent, will depending on how the structures are arranged at the nanoscale.

Ordered, or crystalline, structures result in iridescent colours, which change when viewed from different angles. Disordered, or correlated, structures result in angle-independent matt colours, which look the same from any viewing angle. Since structural colour does not fade, these angle-independent matt colours would be highly useful for applications such as paints or coatings, where metallic effects are not wanted.

“In addition to their intensity and resistance to fading, a matt paint which uses structural colour would also be far more environmentally-friendly, as toxic dyes and pigments would not be needed,” said first author Gianni Jacucci from Cambridge’s Department of Chemistry. “However, we first need to understand what the limitations are for recreating these types of colours before any commercial applications are possible.”

“Most of the examples of structural colour in nature are iridescent – so far, examples of naturally-occurring matt structural colour only exist in blue or green hues,” said co-author Lukas Schertel. “When we’ve tried to artificially recreate matt structural colour for reds or oranges, we end up with a poor-quality result, both in terms of saturation and colour purity.”

The researchers, who are based in the lab of Dr Silvia Vignolini, used numerical modelling to determine the limitations of creating saturated, pure and matt red structural colour.

The researchers modelled the optical response and colour appearance of nanostructures, as found in the natural world. They found that saturated, matt structural colours cannot be recreated in the red region of the visible spectrum, which might explain the absence of these hues in natural systems.

“Because of the complex interplay between single scattering and multiple scattering, and contributions from correlated scattering, we found that in addition to red, yellow and orange can also hardly be reached,” said Vignolini.

Despite the apparent limitations of structural colour, the researchers say these can be overcome by using other kinds of nanostructures, such as network structures or multi-layered hierarchical structures, although these systems are not fully understood yet.

Reference:
Gianni Jacucci et al. ‘The limitations of extending nature’s colour palette in correlated, disordered systems.’ PNAS (2020). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2010486117

Earlier research has shown that autistic people on average die younger than others and that this may be, in part, due to chronic physical health conditions. Previous studies have also shown that autistic people are at higher risk of a variety of health conditions, but we don’t know what is driving these increased risks. Thus, better understanding of the physical health of autistic adults may help us improve both their quality and length of life.

1,156 autistic individuals and 1,212 non-autistic individuals took part in an anonymous, online survey developed by the team about their lifestyle choices and daily habits, personal and family medical history. The results indicate that autistic individuals are, on average, 1.5 to 4.3 times as likely to have a wide variety of health conditions, including low blood pressure, arrhythmias, asthma, and prediabetes.

This new study is also the first to examine the influence of smoking, alcohol use, and BMI. Surprisingly, the results show that these lifestyle factors (which increase the risk of chronic physical health problems in the general population) do not account for the heightened risk of heart, lung, and diabetic conditions seen among autistic adults.

The study also explored the experiences of female respondents and of older adults, both of whom remain understudied groups. The results revealed that autistic females, even more so than autistic males, are more likely to report increased risks of physical health conditions. In addition, the types of conditions of risk depend on the person’s biological sex. For example, autistic females are 4.3 times more likely to have prediabetes than non-autistic females; however, autistic and non-autistic males are equally likely to have prediabetes. These results suggest that a “one size fits all” approach to the healthcare of autistic people may not be effective.

Elizabeth Weir, the PhD student who led the study, said: “This is a first step in better understanding why autistic individuals are so much more likely to have chronic physical health problems. While smoking, alcohol, and BMI may play a role, we now need to focus on what other biological (e.g. genetic, hormonal, etc), environmental, lifestyle (e.g. diet, exercise, sleep, etc) or healthcare-related factors are contributing to these health disparities.”

Professor Simon Baron-Cohen, Director of the Autism Research Centre at Cambridge, who was part of the team, said: “This new study highlights the physical health risks to autistic individuals, and has important implications for their healthcare. Understanding the reasons why these disparities exist will allow us to better support autistic individuals and improve the quality and length of their lives.”

Funding for this project was provided by the Autism Research Trust, the Rosetrees Trust, and the Cambridge and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust.

Reference
Weir, E at al. Increased prevalence of non-communicable physical health conditions among autistic adults. Autism; 9 Sept 2020; DOI: 10.1177/1362361320953652

Like the inner tube of bicycle or car tyre, damage to the lungs can lead to a puncture. As air leaks out, it builds up in the cavity between the lung and chest wall, causing the lung to collapse. Known as a pneumothorax, this condition typically affects very tall young men or older patients with severe underlying lung disease.

During the pandemic, a team at the University of Cambridge and Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge University NHS Foundation Trust, observed several patients with COVID-19 who had developed punctured lungs, even though they did not fall into either of these two categories.

“We started to see patients affected by a punctured lung, even among those who were not put on a ventilator,” says Professor Stefan Marciniak from the Cambridge Institute for Medical Research. “To see if this was a real association, I put a call out to respiratory colleagues across the UK via Twitter. The response was dramatic – this was clearly something that others in the field were seeing.”

Professor Marciniak subsequently obtained the appropriate ethical approvals and exchanged anonymised clinic information about 71 patients from around the UK. This led to a study published today in the European Respiratory Journal.

Although the team are unable to provide an accurate estimate of the incidence of punctured lung in COVID-19, admissions data from the 16 hospitals participating in the study revealed an incidence of 0.91%.

“Doctors need to be alert to the possibility of a punctured lung in patients with COVID-19, even in people who would not be thought to be typical at-risk patients,” said Professor Marciniak, who is also a Fellow at St Catharine’s College, Cambridge. “Many of the cases we reported were found incidentally – that is, their doctor had not suspected a punctured lung and the diagnosis was made by chance.”

Just under two-thirds (63%) of patients with a punctured lung survived. Individuals younger than 70 years tended to survive well, but older age was associated with a poor outcome – a 71% survival rate among under 70s patients compared with 42% among older patients.

Patients with a punctured lung were three times more likely to be male than female, though this may be accounted for by the fact that large studies of patients with COVID-19 suggest that men are more commonly affected by severe forms the disease. However, the survival rate did not differ between the sexes.

Patients who had abnormally acidic blood, a condition known as acidosis that can result from poor lung function, also had poorer outcomes in COVID-19 pneumothorax.

Dr Anthony Martinelli, a respiratory doctor at Addenbrooke’s Hospital, said: “Although a punctured lung is a very serious condition, COVID-19 patients younger than 70 tend to respond very well to treatment. Older patients or those with abnormally acidic blood are at greater risk of death and may therefore need more specialist care.”

The team say there may be several ways that COVID-19 leads to a punctured lung. These include the formation of cysts in the lungs, which has previously been observed in x-rays and CT scans.

Reference
Martinelli, A, et al. COVID-19 and Pneumothorax: A Multicentre Retrospective Case Series. European Respiratory Journal; 10 Sept 2020; DOI: 10.1183/13993003.02697-2020

Dense metallic hydrogen – a phase of hydrogen which behaves like an electrical conductor – makes up the interior of giant planets, but it is difficult to study and poorly understood. By combining artificial intelligence and quantum mechanics, researchers have found how hydrogen becomes a metal under the extreme pressure conditions of these planets.

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge, IBM Research and EPFL, used machine learning to mimic the interactions between hydrogen atoms in order to overcome the size and timescale limitations of even the most powerful supercomputers. They found that instead of happening as a sudden, or first-order, transition, the hydrogen changes in a smooth and gradual way. The results are reported in the journal Nature.

Hydrogen, consisting of one proton and one electron, is both the simplest and the most abundant element in the Universe. It is the dominant component of the interior of the giant planets in our solar system – Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune – as well as exoplanets orbiting other stars.

At the surfaces of giant planets, hydrogen remains a molecular gas. Moving deeper into the interiors of giant planets however, the pressure exceeds millions of standard atmospheres. Under this extreme compression, hydrogen undergoes a phase transition: the covalent bonds inside hydrogen molecules break, and the gas becomes a metal that conducts electricity.

“The existence of metallic hydrogen was theorised a century ago, but what we haven’t known is how this process occurs, due to the difficulties in recreating the extreme pressure conditions of the interior of a giant planet in a laboratory setting, and the enormous complexities of predicting the behaviour of large hydrogen systems,” said lead author Dr Bingqing Cheng from Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory.

Experimentalists have attempted to investigate dense hydrogen using a diamond anvil cell, in which two diamonds apply high pressure to a confined sample. Although diamond is the hardest substance on Earth, the device will fail under extreme pressure and high temperatures, especially when in contact with hydrogen, contrary to the claim that a diamond is forever. This makes the experiments both difficult and expensive.

Theoretical studies are also challenging: although the motion of hydrogen atoms can be solved using equations based on quantum mechanics, the computational power needed to calculate the behaviour of systems with more than a few thousand atoms for longer than a few nanoseconds exceeds the capability of the world’s largest and fastest supercomputers.

It is commonly assumed that the transition of dense hydrogen is first-order, which is accompanied by abrupt changes in all physical properties. A common example of a first-order phase transition is boiling liquid water: once the liquid becomes a vapour, its appearance and behaviour completely change despite the fact that the temperature and the pressure remain the same.

In the current theoretical study, Cheng and her colleagues used machine learning to mimic the interactions between hydrogen atoms, in order to overcome limitations of direct quantum mechanical calculations.

“We reached a surprising conclusion and found evidence for a continuous molecular to atomic transition in the dense hydrogen fluid, instead of a first-order one,” said Cheng, who is also a Junior Research Fellow at Trinity College.

The transition is smooth because the associated ‘critical point’ is hidden. Critical points are ubiquitous in all phase transitions between fluids: all substances that can exist in two phases have critical points. A system with an exposed critical point, such as the one for vapour and liquid water, has clearly distinct phases. However, the dense hydrogen fluid, with the hidden critical point, can transform gradually and continuously between the molecular and the atomic phases. Furthermore, this hidden critical point also induces other unusual phenomena, including density and heat capacity maxima.

The finding about the continuous transition provides a new way of interpreting the contradicting body of experiments on dense hydrogen. It also implies a smooth transition between insulating and metallic layers in giant gas planets. The study would not be possible without combining machine learning, quantum mechanics, and statistical mechanics. Without any doubt, this approach will uncover more physical insights about hydrogen systems in the future. As the next step, the researchers aim to answer the many open questions concerning the solid phase diagram of dense hydrogen.

Reference:
Bingqing Cheng et al. ‘Evidence for supercritical behaviour of high-pressure liquid hydrogen.’ Nature (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2677-y.

Innovate UK, the UK government’s innovation agency, has provided the funding for a collaboration between Cambridge spin-out company DIOSynVax (which is contributing an additional £400,000 to the trial), the University of Cambridge and the University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, a class of virus named after their appearance: spherical objects, on the surface of which sit ‘spike’ proteins. The virus uses these spikes to attach to and invade cells in our body. One vaccine strategy is to block this attachment; however, not all immune responses against this virus and against this spike protein are protective – antibodies to the wrong part of the spike protein have been implicated in triggering hyper-inflammatory immune responses causing life-threatening COVID-19 disease. Added to this, SARS-CoV-2 is mutating and changes in the virus spike protein during the COVID-19 pandemic have already been observed to be widespread.

To develop their new vaccine candidate – DIOS-CoVax2 – the team use banks of genetic sequences of all known coronaviruses, including those from bats, the natural hosts of many relatives of human coronaviruses. The team have developed libraries of computer-generated antigen structures encoded by synthetic genes that can train the human immune system to target key regions of the virus and to produce beneficial anti-viral responses. These immune responses include neutralising antibodies, which block virus infection, and T-cells, which remove virus-infected cells. This ‘laser-specific’ computer generated approach is able to help avoid the adverse hyper-inflammatory immune responses that can be triggered by recognition of the wrong parts on the coronavirus’s surface.

Professor Jonathan Heeney, head of the Laboratory of Viral Zoonotics at the University of Cambridge, and founder of DIOSynVax, said: “Our approach involves 3D computer modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s structure. It uses information on the virus itself as well as its relatives – SARS, MERS and other coronaviruses carried by animals that threaten to ‘spill-over’ to humans again to cause future human epidemics.

“We’re looking for chinks in its armour, crucial pieces of the virus that we can use to construct the vaccine to direct the immune response in the right direction. Ultimately we aim to make a vaccine that will not only protect from SARS-CoV-2, but also other related coronaviruses that may spill over from animals to humans.

“Our strategy includes targeting those domains of the virus’s structure that are absolutely critical for docking with a cell, while avoiding the parts that could make things worse. What we end up with is a mimic, a synthetic part of the virus minus those non-essential elements that could trigger a bad immune response.”

While most vaccines use RNA or adenoviruses to deliver their antigens, DIOSynVax’s is based around DNA. These synthetic gene inserts are very versatile and can also be placed within a number of different vaccine delivery systems that other companies are using. Once an antigen is identified, the key piece of genetic code that the virus uses to produce the essential parts of its structure is inserted into a DNA parcel known as a vector. The body’s immune cells take up the vector, decode the DIOS-vaccine antigen and use the information to program the rest of the immune system to produce antibodies against it.

This DNA vector has already been shown to be safe and to be effective at stimulating an immune response against other pathogens in multiple phase I and early phase II trials.

The proposed vaccine can be freeze-dried as a powder and is therefore heat stable, meaning that it does not need to be cold-stored. This makes transport and storage much more straightforward – which is particularly important in low- and middle-income countries where the infrastructure to make this possible can be costly. The vaccine can be delivered pain-free without a needle into the skin, using the PharmaJet Tropis ® intradermal Needle-free Injection System, which delivers the vaccine in less than a 1/10th of a second by spring-powered jet injection.

Dr Rebecca Kinsley, Chief Operating Officer of DIOSynVax and a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge, added: “Most research groups have used established approaches to vaccine development because of the urgent need to tackle the pandemic. We all hope the current clinical trials have a positive outcome, but even successful vaccines are likely to have their limitations – they may be unsuitable for vulnerable people, and we do not know how long their effects will last for, for example.

“Our approach – using synthetic DNA to deliver custom designed, immune selected vaccine antigens – is revolutionary and is ideal for complex viruses such as coronavirus. If successful, it will result in a vaccine that should be safe for widespread use and that can be manufactured and distributed at low cost.”

The UKRI funding will allow the team to take the vaccine candidate to clinical trial, which will take place at the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Southampton Clinical Research Facility at the University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust and could begin as early as late autumn this year.

Professor Saul Faust, Director of the NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility, said: “It is critical that different vaccine technologies are tested as part of the UK and global response to the pandemic as at this stage no one can be sure which type of vaccine will produce the best and most long-lived immune responses.

“It is especially exciting that the clinical trial will test giving the vaccine through people’s skin using a device without any needles as together with stable DNA vaccine technology this could be a major breakthrough in being able to give a future vaccine to huge numbers of people across the world.”

Phil Packer, Innovation Lead for AMR and Vaccines at Innovate UK, said: “Innovate UK is excited to fund the development of DIOS-CoVax and its assessment in Phase I Clinical Trials. The rapid identification of the DIOS-CoVax2 vaccine was made possible because DIOSynVax were able to rapidly utilise its vaccine platform technology previously developed for an Ebola/ Marburg/Lassa fever vaccine.

“That was delivered by Innovate UK as part of DHSC’s Global Health Security Programme, which saw £110m invested in a new UK Vaccine Network charged with developing new vaccines and technologies to tackle diseases with epidemic potential.”

DIOSynVax is a spin-out company from the University of Cambridge, set up in 2017 with the support of Cambridge Enterprise, the University’s commercialisation arm.

How you can support Cambridge’s COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

Primates are the group of mammals that includes monkeys, apes, lemurs – and humans. There is far more research and conservation funding for non-human primates than other animal species, due largely to their charisma and their close relationship with humans. Despite this, about 60 percent of primate species are now threatened with extinction and 75 percent have declining populations.

In a study published today in the journal BioScience, a team of experts in 21 countries examined 13,000 primate studies. They found a severe lack of evidence for the effectiveness of primate conservation measures.

The team found only 80 primate studies that investigated the effectiveness of conservation measures. In addition, only 12 percent of threatened primates and 14 percent of all known primate species were covered by these intervention studies. The studies focused on large-bodied primates and Old World monkeys, particularly great apes, but left out entire families such as tarsiers and night monkeys.

Despite the taxonomic biases, the authors also found that primate studies were biased towards specific geographic regions and interventions. Fewer than half of the 162 possible primate conservation activities identified by primate experts were evaluated quantitatively.

Likewise, almost 80 percent of tested interventions were of unknown effectiveness. This was due to studies lacking quantitative data, difficulties in undertaking post-implementation monitoring of populations or individuals, or implementing several interventions at once.

“Our findings imply that many primate conservation activities are carried out without demonstrably knowing if they have worked or not in other similar situations. This is alarming, given the urgent need for effective conservation measures for these species. Primate conservationists need to showcase the most effective actions for others to learn from,” said Dr Silviu Petrovan in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, who co-led the research.

“Whether a species was threatened or not played no role for the scientists in the choice of their studied species. We therefore lack the evidence-based information necessary to effectively protect and manage many vulnerable species,” said Dr Jessica Junker at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology (MPI-EVA), who co-led the research with Dr Petrovan.

The study outlines several reasons for the lack of evidence on what works in primate conservation. These include the pattern of survival and reproduction events typical for members of this taxonomic group, also referred to as life history traits.

“Primates tend to occur at low densities, have slow life histories, and their tree-dwelling habits make them difficult to count. This requires innovative methods and intense monitoring over long periods, specific knowledge and hard-to-obtain long-term funding,” said Hjalmar Kühl at iDiv, MPI-EVA, senior author of the study.

The authors say there is another disincentive for primate researchers to conduct evaluations of their primate conservation work: publishing can be extremely time and resource intensive, and difficult to achieve in high impact science journals, especially when the results show that a conservation measure was not effective.

They propose several measures to improve the evidence-base for primate conservation. These include: raising resources for intervention-effectiveness testing and publication, developing guidelines for primate conservation activities, shifting the research focus to threatened species and understudied regions, and seeking long-term collaborations with stakeholders.

The study was led by researchers from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology (MPI-EVA) and the University of Cambridge.

Adapted from a press release by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv).

Reference
Junker, J. & Petrovan, S. O., ‘Severe Lack of Evidence Limits Effective Conservation of the World’s Primates.’ BioScience, 2020. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biaa082

The study is one of three new UK-wide studies receiving a share of £8.4 million from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).

The Humoral Immune Correlates of COVID-19 (HICC) consortium will study the humoral immune response – molecules produced by the immune system to fight infection, including antibodies – by focusing on two cohorts: NHS workers – in collaboration with SIREN – to track immunity over 12 months, and hospitalised patients.

It will look in detail at the role of antibodies in immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and characterize the antibody response in people who have mild or asymptomatic infection versus those who develop moderate or severe COVID-19 disease. The researchers want to better understand the differences between beneficial – or protective – antibody responses versus those that cause disease. This will help to determine why early indications suggest that people with stronger antibody responses may have had more life-threatening disease and what types of antibody responses are more effective in preventing severe infection.

The results from the study will help to develop better tests to diagnose protective immunity as well as determine how long protective antibodies persist after exposure to the virus. The researchers also hope the study will inform treatments for COVID-19 patients at different stages and with different severities of the disease, including whether targeting the overactivation of the innate humoral immune response – known as the ‘complement system’ – to SARS-CoV-2, could provide a unique approach to reducing severe COVID-19 related disease and death.

The consortium is a collaboration led by Professor Wilhelm Schwaeble and Professor Jonathan Heeney at the University of Cambridge, and Dr Helen Baxendale at the Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Trust.

“Understanding the role of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2, and the role that the overactivation of the immediate innate immune response to the virus plays through complement activation in the initiation and maintenance of inflammatory disease, is critical to improve the clinical management of life-threatening cases of COVID-19,” said Dr Baxendale.

“In critical care, we know most patients have high levels of antibody to SARS-CoV-2 however what we don’t know is whether these antibodies are helpful. Pilot data has shown that many of our NHS staff have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, but we need to find out whether this means they are protected from further infection either in the short or the long term, or may be at risk of disease in the future. Understanding the different types of antibody responses will allow us to determine beneficial antibodies from dangerous ones.

“Collaborating nationally with other UK COVID-19 projects and supported by clinical research networks and scientists across the country, we are delighted to receive this investment to answer these fundamentally important questions.”

HICC has been given urgent public health research status by the Department of Health and Social Care, to prioritise its delivery by the health and care system.

Chief Medical Officer for England and Head of the NIHR Professor Chris Whitty said: “Understanding how our immune systems respond to COVID-19 is key to solving some of the important questions about this new disease, including whether those who have had the disease develop immunity and how long this lasts, and why some are more severely affected.

“This investment by the NIHR and UKRI will help immunology experts to discover how our immune systems respond to SARS-CoV-2, including our T cell response. This is vital information to help prevent and treat the disease.”

Science Minister Amanda Solloway said: “Thanks to the brilliant work of our world-leading scientists and researchers, we continue to gain greater knowledge and understanding of coronavirus, enabling us to rapidly develop new treatments, as well as potential new vaccines.”

When acts of violence are reported in London, New York, or the Middle East, people often wonder what role religion might have played. Especially if Muslims are involved, there can also be a tendency to point fingers at the Qur’an. These knee-jerk reactions are not very helpful, the authors of Scripture and Violence suggest, and can lead to increased polarization in society, as well as unwarranted animosity against Muslims and people of other faiths.

Bringing together scholars from the University of Cambridge and other institutions around the world, the contributors to Scripture and Violence set out to clarify the relationship between violent-sounding passages from the Bible and the Qur’an and the actions of Jews, Christians, and Muslims in the real world. They concluded that there is much less cause for alarm than many people think.

Contrary to popular belief, scriptures are rarely a significant motivating factor when acts of violence occur, the researchers found. One researcher interviewed potential and actual ISIS recruits, and discovered that the Qur’an had not played a significant role in motivating them to join. A desire to be involved in “bad-ass-do-goodery” was much more influential.

Another researcher analysed Muslim debates about suicide attacks, and found that while some Islamic scholars had cited verses from the Qur’an to argue that suicide attacks are permissible in certain limited contexts, other Islamic scholars had used the Qur’an to argue that Muslims are prohibited from carrying out such attacks at all. These scholars all treated the Qur’an as sacred, but they disagreed about what actions were permissible. Political arguments were also much more prominent in the debates than discussion of the Qur’an, which played only a marginal role.

The authors of Scripture and Violence also argue that there is no need to be afraid of scary-looking scriptural passages.

“Some people think that the best strategy for preventing violence is to pretend certain scriptural passages don’t exist,” explains co-editor and New Testament scholar Julia Snyder. “But that’s counterproductive. Instead, find out how people within these religious traditions actually understand these scriptures.

“When the Qur’an or the Bible talks about violence, religious people most often understand that as linked to specific historical contexts. Or they say that very specific conditions would have to be met for violent action to be taken. They don’t think these passages call for violence now – even people who view their scriptures as the Word of God.”

Clearing up misunderstandings about these issues will help overcome existing divisions within society, the researchers hope, and enable people of all faiths and none to focus on tackling urgent economic and social issues together.

“As lockdowns end and societies open up again, and as we seek to rebuild our communities together, it’s important not to let unwarranted anxiety about people of other backgrounds or religious faiths get in the way,” emphasizes co-editor Daniel H. Weiss from Cambridge’s Faculty of Divinity. “This is a great time to let go of polarizing and inaccurate ideas about how religion and scripture actually work. In fact, within these religious traditions, active grappling with tough passages can generate creative new solutions for dealing with present-day concerns.”

According to the researchers, addressing fears about scripture and violence can enable people to recognize other prominent aspects of Muslim, Jewish, and Christian scriptures – such as concern for the underprivileged and an emphasis on justice – and use scripture to reflect and debate together about what a good society would look like.

Scripture and Violence is available from 1 September 2020. Published by Routledge, the book includes contributions from international experts on Jewish, Christian, and Muslim texts and traditions, who discuss key issues in interpretation of the Bible and the Qur’an, and highlight the diverse ways in which Christian, Jewish, and Muslim communities understand scriptural texts. A variety of contexts are visited, from British India to Nazi Germany, from the Jerusalem Pride Parade to American evangelicals and the US military, and from CNN to European university classrooms.

Point-of-care testing – in other words, testing patients as soon as they arrive at the hospital – is essential for enabling healthcare workers to rapidly diagnose patients and direct those who test positive for infection to dedicated wards. A recent study showed that SAMBA II, a new point-of-care PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 developed by Cambridge researchers, was able to dramatically reduce time spent on COVID-19 ‘holding’ wards – allowing patients to be treated or discharged far quicker than with current lab testing set-ups.

PCR tests involve extracting a miniscule amount of RNA from the virus and copying it millions of times, creating an amount large enough to confirm presence of the virus. The virus is captured through a swab inside the nostrils and at the back of the throat. However, it can take as long as 14 days for an individual to show symptoms of COVID-19, by which time the virus may have moved away from the nose and throat and into the lungs and other tissues and organs, making it harder to detect via a swab test. As a result, studies have shown that PCR tests can miss as many as a half of infected patients five days after infection.

Antibody tests provide an alternative way of identifying infected individuals, but antibodies – molecules produced by our immune system in response to infection – generally do not appear until at least six days after infection.

Professor Ravi Gupta from the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease at the University of Cambridge said: “We still do not have a gold standard test for diagnosing COVID-19. This poses a challenge to healthcare workers who need to make quick and safe decisions about how and where to treat patients.

“The two main types of test – PCR and antibody tests – both have limitations because of the nature of coronavirus infection and how our body responds. But we’ve shown that if you combine them and carry out both at point of care, their reliability can be hugely increased.”

Professor Gupta led a team that used the approach of combining rapid point-of-care PCR and antibody tests to diagnose 45 patients at Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. The results of this peer-reviewed study are published in Cell Reports Medicine.

The patients, each of whom had suspected moderate to severe COVID-19 disease, provided nose/throat swabs for the tests detecting nucleic acid (virus genetic material) and blood serum for antibody testing an average (median) of seven days after the onset of illness.

The authors designed a gold standard reference test made of two parts, either of which could be positive to confirm COVID-19. The first part was an in vitro test where artificial SARS-CoV-2 viruses were made and mixed with serum from patients to see whether the serum contained neutralising antibodies. The second part of the gold standard was the standard Public Health England laboratory test looking for genetic viral material in nose/throat swabs. Using this gold standard, 24 of the patients had COVID-19.

Professor Gupta’s team used SAMBA II machines, developed by Cambridge spinout company Diagnostics for the Real World, for the nucleic acid tests, and a combination of two finger prick antibody tests, both of which test for antibodies against the spike protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Overall, the nucleic acid tests could identify eight out of ten patients with COVID-19, but when combined with the rapid antibody tests, 100% of the COVID-19 patients were correctly identified. Among the 21 patients who did not have COVID-19, there were four false positive results with one antibody test and only one false positive with the second antibody test, demonstrating that one performed better than the other.

“Combining point-of-care PCR and antibody testing could be a game-changer for rapidly identifying those patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 infection,” said Professor Gupta. “This could prove extremely useful, particularly in the event of a second wave arising during flu season, when it will not be immediately clear whether the patients had COVID-19 or seasonal flu.”

Professor Gupta envisages that hospitals deploying this approach would carry out a finger prick blood test and nose/throat swab at the same time on admission to hospital. The antibody test result is available within 15 minutes, but might benefit from confirmation with a second point-of-care antibody test. Importantly the study showed that the antibody tests can detect antibodies against a mutated form of SARS-CoV-2, D614G in spike protein, that has now become the dominant strain worldwide.

This approach could be particularly beneficial in low resource settings where centralised virology laboratories are scarce and the pandemic is expanding, said Professor Gupta. In addition, it removes the need for repeated nose/throat swabbing when the first test is negative and suspicion of COVID-19 is high, which may generate aerosols and lead to transmission.

The research was mainly funded by Wellcome and supported by the National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Cambridge Clinical Trials Unit.

Reference
Micochova, P et al. Combined point of care SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid and antibody testing in suspected moderate to severe COVID-19 disease. Cell Reports Medicine; 1 Sept 2020; DOI: 10.1016/j.xcrm.2020.100099